Delphi Method
Delphi method is a technique with a high cost-performance ratio, but it will not be a good choice for a start-up company or a company that needs to move quickly to forecast their product, because the time cost of this method is much higher than the others, it take long time for several rounds to end.
Normally, the Delphi method bases on the following manners:
- Choose the experts form variant areas;
- Pass the questionnaire out by email or other means;
- Collect the questionnaire then refine and rework.
It often needs to repeat step ( 2 ) and step ( 3 ) few rounds, until the data is as specific and detail as it needs. The whole process is anonymous, and this avoids pressure from any individuals. Because there are few rounds, experience and new views can be learnt from previous.
This method also contain some disadvantages likes other subjective methods, it is hardly to provide a detail product to product prediction, in many cases it is used in technological forecasting or other forecast in future trends. New product or process might also use this method to determine the likely success or failure. (Lancaster G and Lomas R, 1985)
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